Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 13.324951 15.227550 17.290731 19.692366 22.409294 25.385723 28.891795
2024-10-13 10.838390 13.462315 16.535067 20.391425 25.094143 30.634686 37.649707
2024-10-20 9.191962 12.045485 15.555677 20.177202 26.087028 33.375342 43.029183
2024-10-27 7.580499 10.423214 14.077633 19.098994 25.796378 34.396157 46.248400
2024-11-03 6.907716 9.893176 13.876686 19.550648 27.390528 37.802445 52.634232
2024-11-10 6.352841 9.442265 13.706235 19.980608 28.930694 41.182644 59.160070
2024-11-17 5.695598 8.765315 13.138387 19.771920 29.519106 43.242621 63.938736
2024-11-24 5.089106 8.093592 12.503320 19.386224 29.784593 44.814281 68.066190
2024-12-01 4.673526 7.663532 12.175302 19.406306 30.614467 47.211181 73.497028
2024-12-08 4.382511 7.395341 12.060934 19.725433 31.892640 50.318594 80.143025
2024-12-15 4.084527 7.085457 11.849876 19.864339 32.881145 53.020752 86.301114
2024-12-22 3.762819 6.705316 11.491540 19.729869 33.409475 55.017156 91.443466
2024-12-29 3.524258 6.450953 11.327723 19.915814 34.492257 57.992680 98.398315
2025-01-05 3.383784 6.353988 11.418020 20.531089 36.322671 62.278837 107.743262
2025-01-12 3.120819 6.013552 11.061033 20.344769 36.771164 64.299439 113.423126
2025-01-19 2.741340 5.425771 10.223442 19.249003 35.565693 63.461069 114.200123
2025-01-26 2.631210 5.330676 10.256783 19.707025 37.112352 67.385969 123.365499
2025-02-02 2.525467 5.233987 10.277774 20.139262 38.632409 71.338448 132.785518
2025-02-09 2.343264 4.971207 9.967866 19.929316 38.957789 73.188214 138.551298
2025-02-16 2.155185 4.679796 9.580298 19.540596 38.917580 74.366086 143.147500
2025-02-23 2.031233 4.508559 9.411937 19.560863 39.646382 76.974923 150.497796
2025-03-02 1.949995 4.419419 9.398329 19.882397 40.970168 80.748449 160.210153
2025-03-09 1.855021 4.292619 9.298785 20.022357 41.942108 83.904355 168.909667